There are signs of change in liquor stocks recently, and we will track them today.
　　
The Spring Festival has always been the peak season for liquor consumption, and the revenue in the first quarter accounted for about 30% of the total revenue of the year, so under high expectations, the stock price of baijiu in January usually performed well.
　　
But this year is a bit of an anomaly.
　　
Since entering January, liquor stock prices have plunged, and the brewing industry index has fallen 13% in January.
　　
The mood of first-line liquor is still relatively stable, and the decline in the second and third lines is not very calm, and the general decline of alcoholic liquor, Shede wine, Shuijingfang, Gujinggong, etc. is about 30-40%.
　　
Of course, in comparison, the sub-high-end wine is still good, other public liquor is more exaggerated, basically lying flat, Shunxin Agriculture, Bairun shares, etc. have not risen since falling last year.
　　
So, does baijiu have a chance this year?
　　
1
　　
One of the hottest concepts in recent times is pre-made dishes.
　　
According to the person in charge of Tmall's pre-made dish industry, as of January 10 this year, the sales of pre-made dishes have doubled, and the most popular dishes are signature dishes and family banquet set products.
　　
According to data from an offline Hema store in Shenzhen, the sales growth rate of pre-made vegetables this year has reached more than three digits.
　　
The popularity of pre-made dishes is very sudden, and the recent stock price speculation is also quite hot, and the concept stock leader has been N consecutive boards.
　　
I don't know if you have found a phenomenon:
　　
When pre-made dishes lead the rise, liquor stocks usually lead the decline, and when pre-made dishes fall, liquor rebounds, both of which are seesaw effects.
　　
The baton is the epidemic, when the epidemic tends to be serious, more people choose to stay at home for the New Year, order pre-made dishes to eat Chinese New Year's Eve meals, everything seems to return to the Spring Festival two years ago.
　　
When the epidemic improved, the hope of the market was ignited again, feeling that the cold winter was about to pass, you can drink two glasses and buy some liquor to suppress the shock.
　　
In fact, the concept of pre-made dishes may have a false fire, but this Spring Festival, the prosperity of baijiu is indeed the coldest in recent years.
　　
Junlin found several grassroots research on baijiu, and here is a comprehensive collection of relevant information to sort out the terminal cold and warm of the market.
　　
In the second half of last year, everyone's expectations for this year's Spring Festival were still relatively high, and many liquors also raised prices, starting from the announcement of the price increase in Shuijingfang on November 3, Shede wine, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gong, to December 24 Niulanshan announced a price increase, and the price increase shouted for two whole months.
　　
But the market is not doing well.
　　
According to Ali channel data, the online sales, sales volume and average price of the liquor industry in December changed by -49.08%/-44.62%, -33.39%/-18.60%, -23.56%/-31.97% year-on-year/month-on-month, respectively, diving straight down.
　　
The main reason is that the epidemic situation in various places, especially the Winter Olympics is approaching, in order to create a stable social situation, local governments strictly prevent and control it, which seriously suppresses the enthusiasm of liquor distributors to stock up.
　　
Many distributors bluntly said: this year is the most depressed year in the liquor industry since 2013!
　　
After all, when the epidemic broke out in 2020, it was close to the Spring Festival, and the dealers' pickup of goods had ended, and in 2021, everyone expected that the epidemic was about to pass, and there was still enthusiasm for taking goods.
　　
But this year, dealers have mostly become numb and have no intention of fighting.
　　
The degree of depression in various places can be roughly divided into three plates:
　　
First-class areas: Shaanxi, Henan, completely frozen;
　　
Second-level areas: developed coastal provinces, Beijing-Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, Guangdong, half-collapsed;
　　
Tertiary regions: the remaining provinces, the volume contraction and price increase, basically stagnant.
　　
Let's talk about them separately.
　　
First-class areas: Shaanxi, Henan, completely frozen.
　　
On December 22, 2021, Xi'an announced that the city's communities and units would implement closed management, non-essential places would be closed, and a large city with a population of 13 million was instantly pressed the pause button.
　　
Not only Xi'an, due to the needs of epidemic prevention, most prefecture-level cities in Shaanxi have closed their shopping malls, and alcohol has basically lost its regular consumption scene.
　　
Although according to the current progress of the epidemic, the social cold in Xi'an may be achieved before the Spring Festival, but the lifting of the lockdown will definitely not be after the Spring Festival holiday.
　　
Henan is similar.
　　
According to the official Weibo news of the Propaganda Department of the Zhengzhou Municipal Party Committee, from 12 noon on January 8, the city's catering establishments suspended dine-in, and can provide self-pick-up and take-out ordering services. Strengthen the management of food pickup and takeaway, strictly prohibit food pick-up personnel from entering the business premises, and all employees and food pick-up personnel must strictly implement prevention and control measures such as wearing masks and "1-meter line".
　　
On January 19, Henan's prevention and control policies were further tightened, and returnees were required to register and report to the community (village) where they returned three days in advance, and register and report at their place of residence as soon as they arrived at their destination. Actively cooperate with the local epidemic prevention and control department to implement epidemic prevention measures, and do not go out during home isolation or home health monitoring, and are strictly prohibited from participating in any gathering activities.
　　
These policies indicate that the offline alcohol consumption scene in Xi'an and Zhengzhou has basically pressed the pause button.
　　
According to grassroots survey data on dealers, the decline in Xi'an this year may be 70%-80%, and Henan will decline by 50%-60% year-on-year.
　　
You know, Shaanxi and Henan are major economic provinces and are the two major highland markets for alcohol consumption in the north, and the liquor industry is really hurt deeply this year.
　　
Second-level areas: developed coastal provinces, Beijing-Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, Guangdong, half-collapsed;
　　
The epidemic situation in these places is relatively not so serious, but due to frequent exchanges with overseas, there are still individual cases from time to time, which makes officials in various places highly nervous, and they have introduced "one nucleic acid a day", which has also seriously suppressed local demand.
　　
The two biggest needs of the Spring Festival, one is the wedding banquet, the other is the annual meeting of the enterprise, now can not be engaged in, even if you want to engage, the above is not allowed.
　　
As a result, expectations have dropped to freezing.
　　
According to dealer feedback, these regions will decline by about 30%-40% this year.
　　
The terrible thing is that these regions are the most economically developed provinces in China, accounting for 40% of China's total GDP, and the impact can be imagined.
　　
Tertiary regions: the remaining provinces, the volume contraction and price increase, basically stagnant.
　　
The rest of the provinces have few exchanges with overseas, the epidemic situation is relatively controllable, and the business is relatively good, but the degree of improvement is also limited.
　　
The main reason is that the general environment is not good, small and medium-sized private enterprises have high operating pressure, no profit, and the demand for business activities has decreased. Especially in the third-, fourth- and fifth-tier regions with weak economic strength, the trend of consumption downgrade is obvious.
　　
In addition, the government also advocates celebrating the New Year on the spot, the number of people returning to their hometowns has decreased, and those who have not returned from part-time work have returned to whom will the goods be sold?
　　
On the whole, sales in various places have shrunk slightly, falling by about 10%-20%, but because the price just rose last year, hedging can also ensure that sales are flat.
　　
2
　　
Obviously, the current liquor market is quite depressed, but the valuation of individual liquor is not cheap.
　　
For example, Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gong, Jinshi Yuan, etc., have experienced a wave of decline since last year's Spring Festival, and in the second half of the year, under the expectation of price increases, they quickly recovered most of the lost ground.
　　
The current dynamic PE is generally still around 40-50 times, which is the valuation of the coldest Spring Festival in the past decade?
　　
It must be faith that sustains it.
　　
There are two reasons for last year's adjustment, one is that the epidemic continues and consumption is cooling; One is the liquor excise tax, a blow to emotions.
　　
Among the two factors, the consumption tax is only a sound of stairs after all, just like the property tax, it may not be able to land for many years, so it is only a suppression of short-term emotions.
　　
After a while, the wind passed, and everyone forgot.
　　
The epidemic factors have had a great substantial impact on the pattern of the liquor industry.
　　
In the past two years, although they are both epidemic times, the difference is very large.
　　
In 2020, the first year of the epidemic, under the crisis, water was released in various places to stimulate it, so high-end demand broke out, the price of high-end wine terminals rose loudly, and the phenomenon of hoarding alcohol was widespread.
　　
Sub-high-end wines also followed the price increase, and Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu became the most outstanding famous wines in this period.
　　
But the demand for low-end alcohol is still suppressed, after all, it is inevitable that small businesses will have a difficult business under the epidemic, and releasing water cannot save it.
　　
In 2021, the second year of the pandemic, the government closed the faucet, supported by a booming export manufacturing industry.
　　
The crisis has appeared, first of all, the prosperity of high-end wine is gradually disappearing, a typical example is the fever of sauce wine fever.
　　
The rise of Moutai in the past decade has caused many speculators to pour into the golden mountain of "sauce wine", and various sauce wine series have been developed one after another, intending to get a piece of the pie.
　　
But from the fourth quarter of 2020, speculators found that the sauce wine could not be sold. Diaoyutai Liquor, Guizhou Alcohol, Yelang Ancient Wine, etc. have announced a shrinking front and closing the door to customized and OEM products.
　　
In this, on the one hand, the consumption power of high-end wine is declining, on the other hand, it is also related to the problems of Moutai's own management, and the marketing ability has declined.
　　
Secondly, the price increase of sub-high-end wine, the market is also very divided.
　　
Although the securities research report believes that the situation of sub-high-end wine is good, the volume and price are rising, but according to the information of grassroots research, a considerable number of dealers do not agree.
　　
The important reason is that in the original market optimism in 2020, dealers stocked a lot of goods, but now the epidemic is spreading, the consumer market is cold, and the inventory backlog is even more serious.
　　
Can't sell it, do you still want to raise the price?
　　
Some distributors said: "Because of the high growth of sauce brands in 2020, the pressure of terminal inventory is relatively large, and the downward impact of Moutai prices has brought down the prices of many sauce brands, and some brands have even had price inversions, so the significance of raising prices is not very great." ”
　　
Others said:
　　
"Price increases and price increases are two different things, and many times the symbolic significance of price increases is greater than the actual significance. In the case of continued weakness on the consumer side, terminal prices are unlikely to rise, and last year's price increase led to a large increase in inventory for many dealers. I am not very optimistic about this round of price increases, I feel that the volume price has diverged a little, and the owner of the smoking hotel told me that a certain wine product over 1,000 is a signal to the top of the industry. In this case, some famous wines are strongly raised in price, some are forced to raise prices to follow the occupancy, and some are raised prices to suppress goods. ”
　　
Under the chaos, the so-called price increase is more about beating the swollen face and filling up the fat, so last year's price increase was generally not large.
　　
But the market's expectations are still too full.
　　
In this situation, Junlin believes that compared with high-end sub-premium wines with a depressed market and still very expensive valuations, the public liquor with a longer adjustment time and more adequate adjustment time is an opportunity.
　　
First, valuations are cheap enough, and second, demand recovery can be expected after the epidemic subsides.
　　
Reference:
　　
Wine industry: "The coldest Spring Festival season" is coming? Zhengzhou wine merchants predict that sales will decline by more than 50%丨First-line research
　　
Wine businessmen: barcode, winding-up, exit... Who pushed down the "dominoes" of the sauce brand